By Matt Dinerman (Track Announcer and Handicapping Analyst at Golden Gate Fields)
Race 7: Monday, September 3, 2018: 4:45 p.m. PT
Mile and a sixteenth on the turf (for 3-year-olds and upward)
The Rolling Green Stakes at Golden Gate Fields features a strong group of contenders, including a duo of Grade 3 winners, the best California-bred in Northern California and the full brother to champion California Chrome. Let’s analyze each horse in the 2018 Rolling Green and come up with a winner.
#1 EAGLE SCREAMS most recently completed the runner up spot in a second level allowance race at Santa Rosa on dirt. He is a consistent horse that has been competing against claiming company in most of his races this year and, quite frankly, it appears others entered in this spot are a bit classier. Siding with others this time.
#2 ALERT BAY makes his second start off a 13-month break. In his first race off the layoff, he ran a very good second in the Grade 3 Longacres Mile over a track where he typically does not produce his very best race. He gets back to the Golden Gate turf, a surface he is 4 for 6 over, and should be dead fit for trainer Blaine Wright, who hits at a very high 35% win rate with runners making their second start off a layoff longer than 180 days. This two time San Francisco Mile winner is my top pick.
#3 MITHQAAL makes his stakes debut in this spot. He comes off a hard fought second place finish in a starter allowance event at Del Mar; the winner of that race came right back to win three weeks later. Another contender that enjoy the Golden Gate turf (2 for 3), expect him to be close to the pace for high percentage conditioner Jonathan Wong.
#4 EDITORE hasn’t been seen in four months but appears as the one to beat with his best race. The Paulo Lobo trainee won the Grade 3 Berkeley Handicap last fall and was a game second in the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile over this turf course two races ago. Lobo is 0 for 21 with runners making their first start off a layoff between 61-180 days. For that reason, do we try to beat him today? If he runs his “A” race, he’ll be tough….but thinking with the layoff line on display, he is beatable.
#5 ANY QUESTIONS comes off a fourth place finish in a first level allowance race at Del Mar. His last win came over this turf course, where he won a mile turf route against Northern California allowance company. With that in mind, this is the toughest field he has ever faced. He’ll need to run a career best to win this.
#6 RITZY A.P. won the JT Grace Handicap at Santa Rosa against solid company but faces an even tougher group in this spot. He’s a stakes winner, sure, but if you take a look at the majority of his races in Southern California, he failed to win many second level allowance races down there. I’m inclined to call him an exotics contender and try to beat him on the win end as he’s probably a notch or two below the best signed on here.
#7 FAVERSHAM is a full sibling to superstar CALIFORNIA CHROME. A three-year-old facing older today, his only career win came three starts ago at the Cal-bred maiden special weight level at Santa Anita. His last two races came in stakes events against three year olds and both resulted in subpar efforts. Now he has to face older stakes horses; improvement is needed to be competitive.
#8 STEEL PLANK has been running at low level claiming conditions in his past four starts since taking 15 months off from March of 2017 to June of this year. He’s outclassed in this spot.
#9 CAMINO DEL PARAISO was the runner up in this race last year. He only lost by a length and a half in the Grade 3 San Francisco Mile earlier this year and put up two better than looked efforts in two recent starts at Del Mar-starts in which he made up a ton of ground late. Problem is…this guy is a deep closer, meaning the other main contenders will get first jump on him down the lane. Nonetheless, look for CAMINO’ to be rolling late.
SELECTIONS
TOP SELECTION: #2 ALERT BAY-Should be primed for a big effort
SECOND PICK: #4 EDITORE-Will be tough with his best run
THIRD PICK: #9 CAMINO DEL PARAISO-Expect him to sit back early and make a strong run late
GOOD LUCK AND ENJOY THE RACE!