$29,341 is carried over into the 50 cent (minimum) Late Pick 5 wager, Races 3-7 today. Here’s another edition of “How I’d Play It!”
Race 3: Along with being the first leg of the Late Pick 5, this race is also Leg D of the Stronach 5 wager. #4 FRUITFULLY (1-1 ML) is clearly the one to beat here; she won by daylight at this condition two races ago and has tactical speed to where she should land a good trip. The main concern, though, is that she sports a 2 for 13 record, with 8 other in-the-money finishes. In other words, she hits the board a lot more often than she wins. #1 WARRENS LIL MARGIE (4-1) put up a respectable effort last time out in a large field and fires her best races over this track. #6 HI SKOOL SWEETHART (8-1) cuts her claiming price in half and should be more competitive with the class drop in mind. Possible price play. (Final thoughts: Although Fruitfully may not be a mortal lock, she’ll probably be pretty tough with her best effort.)
Race 4: #2 MERCY RULE (8-5) drops in class after a third-place finish against maiden special weight company. He appears as the lone speed for leading trainer Jonathan Wong and may prove tough to reel in if he can secure a loose lead. #3 SNAPPISH (5-2) is another class dropper. All three career races have come sprinting on turf against Southern California maiden special weight competition and his fastest race is good enough to be very competitive against this group. #4 WINTER FOG (7-2) had to take up shortly after the start of his career debut but rallied down the lane to pick up the bronze medal. The victor of the race, Mr. Fireball, has since come back to win a starter allowance and, most recently, complete the trifecta in a first level allowance. Winter Fog could take a step forward in lifetime start number two, especially if he isn’t hampered with at the start. (Final Thoughts: Mercy Rule is at an advantage from a pace scenario standpoint, but the other two selections have appeal and must be respected.)
Race 5: #4 AVALON KING (5-2) faces easier company after a fourth-place finish on dirt last month. He is a speed horse that faced pressure on the front-end last time-the same level of pressure is unlikely in this race. The class relief should do him well, too. #5 DEVIOUS DETECTIVE (2-1) was given a perfect trip in his last start at this non-2 lifetime level and had to settle for third after stalking the pace. His past two races, though, have been fast enough to compete for the top spot. #1 CARTERS BLUE (9-5) finished three-quarters of a length ahead of our top pick in an October 12 claimer and will try to beat the aforementioned rival again. That said, he must overcome a poor post position. #3 CHANGING IMAGE (9-2) has improved since moving to the barn of Debbie Winick and was last seen finishing ahead of the second pick at big odds. #2 ROB’S GOT GAME (12-1) comes off an eight-and-a-half-month layoff and drops in class; maybe he is ready for a big effort off the break. (Final Thoughts: Suspect form from the top contenders means you might want to take a conservative route when strategizing what to do with Leg C of your Pick 5 ticket.)
Race 6: #4 MISIRLOU (1-1) is the most likely winner on the card. The full sibling to El Camino Real Derby winner Zakaroff broke her maiden stylishly two starts ago before defeating males in a September 29 allowance race; the second-place finisher, No Longer Silent, came back to romp in an October 19 allowance and is considered a major player in this Saturday’s Golden Nugget Stakes. #2 JUST CLASSY (5-1) and #3 PERSUASIVE LIPS (10-1) are two “value plays” underneath in exactas, tris and supers: they were noses apart in a starter allowance on October 17 and may be competitive for an in the money placing with duplicated efforts. (Final Thoughts: We won’t mess around looking for value; Misirlou could run her “C race” and still beat this field. We’ll key her and move along to the last leg, if we’re lucky enough to make it that far.)
Race 7: #1 EMPIRE WICKET (6-5) drops to the bottom barrel after an October 18th race in which he drifted out turning for home and faded down the lane as the favorite. With that effort in mind, the field he finds here is subpar, at best, and he should win the nightcap If he has anything left in the tank. #6 GOOCH EXPRESS (7-2) ran well at this level after stalking the pace last time and is fast enough to win if the top picks fails to fire. #4 DOMENICO (9-2) may be the best of the rest based on recent form. (Final thoughts: It’s hard to trust the favorite after such a poor performance last time out, but all signs indicate he is better than the rest in this spot. Our second and third picks make the cut on our Pick 5 ticket…just in case the top pick disappoints again.)
THE TICKET 50 Cent Late Pick 5 ($24) R3: 4 R4: 2,3,4 R5: ALL R6 4 R7: 1,4,6
Good luck!