$50,000 Camilla Urso Stakes
Race 7 at Golden Gate Fields
Saturday, March 18, 2017 (Post time: 3:45 PM Pacific Standard Time)
Analysis by Matt Dinerman
The feature race on Saturday’s program, the $50,000 Camilla Urso Stakes, features the best filly and mare sprinters in The Bay Area. Let’s take a look at each contender.
On February 24, #1 PRECIOUS TIME came off an eight and a-half month layoff and scored an 11-1 upset, sitting off the pace before making one run from the back of the field. It’s a whole new ballgame now, as this gal is facing much tougher company. The good news is she’s 6 for 11 over this track, so at least she’ll be making her stakes debut over a footing she really enjoys. Whether she has the class to compete for the win is a question mark though. I’ll side with others in this spot.
#2 B C Z MIDDLETON has won two stakes races in her career: The Washington State Legislators Stakes at Emerald Downs and The Princess of Palms Stakes at Turf Paradise, both stakes on dirt. In her most recent race, coming off a three-month vacation, she took a starter allowance field gate to wire at Turf Paradise. Second start off the layoff, she’ll probably be even more fit, but the best rivals signed on here look more intriguing. She always gives an honest effort, so we can expect her to try hard again, but I have a feeling she’s another that may be a bit outclassed.
#3 TURKISH TABBY has finished behind (likely favorite) #5 Fast and Foxy in her past two starts. In both races, she attempted to pressure the aforementioned rival on the front end, but was put away both times. In her most recent effort, she ran gallantly to hold on for second after going at a fast pace with ‘Foxy, but ‘Tabby still has to figure out a way to finish in front of ‘Foxy this time. If she runs back to her last race, she has a big chance to hit the board, but she’ll need to run an all-time best to have a shot at winning this. One of two runners from the Jerry and Janet Hollendorfer stable.
#4 CASTELLANI hasn’t been seen since November 18th and she has never sprinted six furlongs before. The vast majority of her races have been going a route of ground and her four most recent races have resulted in off-the-board finishes; not the greatest recent form. It would be a surprise if she won.
#5 FAST AND FOXY certainly is fast. All 14 career wins have come over this track and she holds terrific recent form. She has run five times since a six-month break from May to November, with four of those races resulting in wire-to-wire victories. Her only loss was a third place finish behind Quick and Silver, one of the best male sprinters at Golden Gate. This mare has one way of going: to the lead. Nobody is quick enough to go with her unless they want to be a rabbit and it sure looks like she’s clearly the one to beat in this race.
#6 CONIAH moves back to the barn of Bill Morey after a short stint with Carla Gaines in Southern California. This gal has been under the care of four different trainers, but she’s been the most consistent with Morey, who conditioned her twice: once in 2015 and again in 2016. In 5 starts for The Morey barn, she holds a 2-1-1 record. Highlights of her career include a third place finish in The Rancho Bernardo (G3) at Del Mar and another third in The Raven Run (G2) at Keeneland, so she has back class, and even though her two most recent races have been poor, she gets a three month freshening for this start (her last race was in December.) It’s also worth noting this one sports a nice work tab for trainer Morey, who wins at a 27% clip with his trainees making their first start off a layoff between 61-180 days. A sneaky contender if she runs back to her best races.
#7 CODE WARRIOR has been a consistent filly for The Manny Badilla stable since her career debut, when she won by seven lengths. This gal actually finished in front of #5 Fast and Foxy on January 7th, in the allowance race that Quick and Silver won, but ‘Foxy was able to turn the tables on #7 Code Warrior when she beat her by 2 and a half lengths in their most recent battle on January 29. ‘Warrior will need to rebound, but note she is the only one entered in this race that has finished in front of #5 Fast and Foxy, and she holds two stakes wins and a Grade 2 placing on her resume. Must be respected.
#8 CALM THE SEA is the second Hollendorfer runner signed on. Like the runner to her inside, this gal won her very first start (on February 5, 2016), but was given 11 months off after the maiden breaker. She returned in 2017 to run third in two allowance races at Santa Anita and most recently finished fourth in an allowance at Golden Gate. She has shown front running speed in past starts, including in that last race at Golden Gate, so this ‘capper wouldn’t be all that surprised if she ends up being a rabbit for her stablemate (#3 Turkish Tabby). Could impact the race significantly, from a pace scenario standpoint, if she does indeed go out with #5 Fast And Foxy.
THE PACE: We all know what #5 Fast and Foxy is going to do. Two questions to try and answer:
- Is anybody going to go out with #5 Fast and Foxy?
- Is anybody even quick enough to go to the lead with #5 Fast and Foxy?
This handicapper thinks #8 Calm The Sea could be the rabbit to pressure #5 Fast and Foxy. She has shown front running speed before and sometimes one Jerry Hollendorfer runner will go out with a projected lone leader to help the other entrant out. We have seen this scenario before. #6 Coniah has some early gas as well, but she has been effective stalking the pace before pouncing on the leaders down the lane, so I’d have to imagine that will be her strategy with a speedster like #5 Fast and Foxy signed on.
THE CLASS: #5 Fast and Foxy won a stake in December and runners #6 Coniah and #7 Code Warrior placed in two separate Grade 2 stakes last year (though it’s worth mentioning both Grade 2’s were restricted to three-year-olds fillies.)
Selections:
Top pick: #5 Fast And Foxy– She might just be too quick for this bunch
Second choice: #7 Code Warrior– Quality filly puts up a good fight every race
Third choice: #3 Turkish Tabby-Finished second to the top pick last month
Longshot To Consider: #6 Coniah- Grade 2 placed filly’s best race makes her a logical contender