By Matt Dinerman
Albany, Calif. (November 29, 2017) $43,854 carried over in The Golden Gate Fields 50 Cent Pick 5 for Thursday, November 30! The pool is expected to get to at least $250,000 and the wager features a low 14% takeout…talk about “player friendly.” A winning ticket will turn into a good chunk of cash in your pocket and a nice way to start off your racing week on The West Coast!
Here is how I am playing the Pick 5 at Golden Gate tomorrow:
LEG 1: Six $6,250 claimers go one mile in the first leg of the Pick 5. #4 Volkonsky is the one to beat after finishing second at this level on November 5; the rival who finished in front of him came back to win (again) in an 8k claimer on November 17. One concern, though…Volkonsky has 4 wins from 53 starts, with 24 second or third place finishes. Obviously he hits the board more often than he wins. #3 On Fire easily won for $3,200 last time out and was claimed by Isidro Tamayo, who is 3 for 9 first-off-the claim. On Fire could take a step forward for the new connections, though his “A” race probably makes him competitive against this group anyway. We’ll use #3 On Fire and #4 Volkonsky to kick things off.
LEG 2: Eight 2-year-old fillies will travel five and one half furlongs in this $12,500 claimer. #2 Chiefs Lil Pearl would be hard to leave off tickets; the daughter of Bold Chieftain is the only entrant that has won at this level and comes into this off a nice second place finish behind a filly who would be odds on if she were entered in this spot. #6 Gambler’s Appeal drops in class after running fourth in a $25,000 claimer and #3 La Classic Gold can improve in her second lifetime start. In the career debut, she overcame a slow start and wide trip to break her maiden in a “better than it looks on paper” effort.
LEG 3: A six furlong, $8,000 claimer on Tapeta features a field of eight. #4 Kochees makes his second start off a nine-month vacation for trainer Blaine Wright, who hits at a 25% clip with horses making the second start in their form cycle. In his first afternoon appearance since the lengthy break, Kochees finished fourth in a tough starter allowance race, which featured stakes winner Kristo Skye and a hard knocker named Thirty Pepperonis, who came back to win a $16,000 event two weeks ago. Interestingly, Thirty Pepperonis is 5-2 on the morning line in a $20,000 claimer later on in the day. Note that Kochees moves from the turf to his preferred Tapeta surface; he is 1 for 11 on turf and 5 for 11 on Tapeta. We’re taking a stand and singling this guy on our ticket.
LEG 4: Eight $12,500 claimers to contest one-mile on the turf course. The top pick is #4 Peaked, who ran at this level on November 9. That day, she made a premature move on the far turn and got a little tired late, eventually losing by a length. If she gets a better ride, she can win this time. She is 0 for 2 on turf, yes, but her first start on the green (back in September of 2016) was solid and she was overmatched when racing on the lawn the second time. #1 Enchanted Jasmine drops from the starter allowance level to this $12,500 condition, which should help put her over the top, while #5 Gilded finished ahead of our top pick last time out and has run second in 3 of 4 starts at this level for high percentage trainer John Martin. We’ll use all three fillies on our ticket.
LEG 5: If we’re lucky enough to make it this far, we’re using 3 of the 8 runners in the last leg, a six-furlong $6,250 claiming sprint. #6 Tuesday’s Supernova is the only confirmed front runner in a race that lacks front-running speed. She cuts back from a route to a sprint after a poor effort going two turns last time out, but she has never routed well so we’ll cross that race out. ‘Supernova has finished second or third in her past four sprint races and the last time she ran at this level, she lost by a head to Passion For Papa, who came back to run second against a tough group of $12,500 claimers. #7 Pattin for a Dance just ran third at the $16,000 claiming level at Del Mar and would be awfully tough with a repeat of that effort. #1 Jersey Buns takes a significant drop in class from the starter allowance level to this $6,250 condition, so she faces a lot easier than what she is used to seeing.
THE 50-CENT TICKET ($27 investment)
R1: 3,4
R2: 2,3,6
R3: 4
R4: 1,4,5
R5: 1,6,7