by Matt Dinerman
Santa Anita and former Golden Gate Fields track announcer Michael Wrona explained The 2016 Breeders Cup Classic stretch run best: “A pulsating, climax to the classic…ARROGATE TAKES THE LEAD AND WINS!” The two best dirt horses on the planet, #1 Arrogate and #12 California Chrome, started off a two-race rivalry in the ‘Classic, which turned out to be one of the best races of the year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVY3sP7_wv0). A sequel to that rivalry takes place this Saturday in The $12,000,000 Pegasus World Cup, with a dozen runners assembling to take part in the world’s richest race.
We all know what 6-5 morning line favorite #12 California Chrome can do. In this capper’s opinion, he has a better chance of beating #1 Arrogate at a mile and an eighth than he did at a mile and a quarter. In the Breeders Cup Classic, California Chrome went to the lead immediately and was there pretty much the entire way…. that is, until he was eventually run down in the final strides by Arrogate. This time we’ll probably see ‘Chrome’ stalk the pace and try to run by the aforementioned rival. ‘Chrome has a very high cruising speed and will go when Victor Espinoza pushes the button, so that’s a positive.
Post position 12 is not an easy place to win from. According to Daily Racing Form writer Marcus Hersch, since 2006 there have been 18 races where a horse broke from post position 12 going a mile and an eighth on dirt at Gulfstream Park. Just one horse has won from that post; that one horse was the very talented Big Brown, who won The Florida Derby in 2008 and went on to win The Kentucky Derby and Preakness. That said, California Chrome is much faster than most of the horses to his inside, so assuming he breaks well, he should have enough early zip to cross over and get solid position heading into the first turn.
7-5 morning line second choice #1 Arrogate breaks from post position 1. Like his main competitor, Arrogate also does not have a desirable post position. A long striding horse with a high cruising speed like Arrogate needs to run freely, and he could be taken out of his element if he’s caught behind a pack of horses heading into the first turn. Arrogate doesn’t break slowly, but he tends to take a few strides to get into rhythm, so it’s no secret he’ll be ridden aggressively out of the gate. Expect jockey Mike Smith to send HARD in an effort to have him forwardly placed.
Based on that, my guess is that Smith is going to try and take this field gate to wire, similar to what he did in The Travers (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HMyD7svqEI). On Travers Day, Arrogate also broke from post position 1.
It’s also worth noting that no horse has been able to run by ‘Chrome in the final furlong of a race since the spectacular Shared Belief did it in February of 2015, when he won The San Antonio Invitational. It takes a superstar to run by a horse like California Chrome in the final furlong, but Arrogate did it. HOWEVER, remember this race is a mile and an eighth, so if for some reason Arrogate is behind California Chrome once again, he’ll have one less furlong to run down the 2016 Horse of the Year. He needed every bit of ground to do so in The Breeders Cup.
At the end of the day, my pick is #1 Arrogate. If he can get to the lead, I think he’ll be very tough to run down. I would love to see California Chrome go out a winner and it would be an incredible moment for all who have admired his sensational talent. That said, I think Arrogate could be one of the greats….he just might be THAT good.
Place a wager, sit back, relax, get out the popcorn and enjoy the race! Hopefully it’s a race worth remembering for a long, long time.