Golden Gate Fields

Matt's Picks

Matt's Picks

Matt Dinerman’s Selections

Sunday, October 2, 2022: Closing Day of the 19-day 2022 Summer Meet

***EARLY FIRST POST: 12:45 PM*** ***TICKETS AND PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE***

***Golden Gate Fields track announcer Matt Dinerman provides handicapping analysis every day. To listen to his analysis, please tune in to the Golden Gate Fields simulcast feed. Analysis for each race will take place immediately following the post parade. Matt’s Early Pick 5, Late Pick 4 and Golden Pick 6 tickets will be displayed after the post parade of the first leg of each wager. You can contact Matt at matt.dinerman@goldengatefields.com or on Twitter @3coltshandicap.***

Race 1: #6 Evenrevenworse, #5 Colormemoney, #2 Meet the Sheriff

Race 2: #2 Ayrton Senna, #3 Fascinated, #1 Thunder of Zion

Race 3: #6 Jumping Jill Flash, #3 Truly Fabulous, #5 Gardees World

Race 4: #4 Broken Finger, #3 Roaring Tiger, #2 Safe Combination

Race 5: #3 Papapifas, #4 Bobby’s Alibi, #2 Gerlach’s

Race 6: #6 Momma Mocca, #4 Stoic Luna, #2 I’ll Do It for You

Race 7: #5 Zhivago, #1 Its Thievery, #6 Rachel’s Coach

Race 8: #9 Lookout Point, #3 Rio King, #6 Big Brother

Race 9: #4 Dance Lady, #8 Moonshine Cat, #6 Front of Line

Race 10: #8 Table for Two, #1 Explain This Audit, #7 Big Spin

Race 11: #7 Mischievous Curlin, #8 My Legal Bet, #2 Angels Advocate

50-Cent Early Pick 5 ($27)                                

R1: 6

R2: 1,2,3

R3: 3,6

R4: 2,3,4

R5: 2,3,4

***MANDATORY PAYOUTS TODAY!!! 24K CARRY OVER IN THE PICK 6***

20-Cent Golden Pick 6 ($72)                            

R6: ALL

R7: 5

R8: 3,6,9

R9: 4

R10: 1,5,7,8,9

R11: 2,7,8

HOW I PLAY THE MANDATORY PAYOUT PICK SIX

By Matt Dinerman

Sunday is Closing Day of the Winter/Spring meet at Golden Gate. With that, we have a mandatory payout in the Golden Pick Six, both Pick 5’s, and the Rolling Super High Five wager.

Almost $25,000 is carried over into our Pick Six wager. Here is how I play the sequence:

Race 6: The first leg of the Pick Six is an awfully tricky puzzle to decipher. My top selection is 8-1 on the morning line: #6 Momma Mocca. After a solid winter/spring campaign, she threw up a pair of subpar efforts early on in the summer. She’s been freshened three months and, with that break, hopefully can show the same energy level she had earlier in the year. Two races in April stand out: she hit-the-board behind multiple stakes winner Natural Colour at this level and finished as the runner up in a separate heat to second-level allowance caliber racer Assignation. Momma Mocca figures to receive a good stalking trip off a projected fast pace. (STRATEGY: In an extremely evenly matched field with many ways to go, this feels like a spread race. I opted to “buy” the race. We’ll be hoping a price horse wins.)

Race 7: A full field of 2-year-olds are slated to sprint five and one-half furlongs in this maiden special weight. A full brother to graded stakes placed filly Big Book, #5 Zhivago ran a terrific race behind an impressive winner in his career debut last month and appears as a major player in this spot. Trainer Steve Specht, who conditions, wins at 22% with maiden second time starters. He employs go-to rider Frank Alvarado to navigate. (STRATEGY: Although this race has first time starters with appeal and others who can improve off their past races, I need to take a stand so I can use more horses in races where I think we need coverage. So, I single Zhivago and hope he can pull through for us.)

Race 8: #3 Rio King will be singled on plenty of players’ tickets and, on paper, may look like the most likely winner on the card. I feel he is vulnerable. After decent enough maiden special weight runs at Churchill Downs, Santa Anita, and Del Mar, he freshens up a month and a half and suddenly takes a significant drop-in class to this $20,000 maiden claiming condition. He hasn’t posted a published workout in a month and appears as one whose form is not trending in the right direction. He makes the ticket (reasoning below), but I am also using #9 Lookout Point, another Southern California invader who suffered an unlucky trip at this level a couple weeks ago and probably was best. #6 Big Brother encountered traffic issues in his last start, too, and makes the final cut. (STRATEGY: Although I don’t love the favorite-and in this scenario I would typically advise to play against altogether-his races look MANY lengths better than the other competitors; I can’t leave him off. But he’s not a single. We’ll use a couple others who were unlucky in their last starts and may be able to run better with more favorable trips.)

Race 9: In her most recent afternoon appearance, #4 Dance Lady set fast fractions before getting tagged late in the final 20 yards. She cuts back a sixteenth of a mile (to a flat mile distance) and remains at the same level. This gal is versatile at one-turn or two, but in many of her route races she has finished behind numerous next-out winners. It’s also worth noting her highest speed figures have come when she’s routed. (STRATEGY: We need to take a stand somewhere. I have confidence that Dance Lady will prove best of this bunch for a conditioner [Reid France] who is firing on all cylinders with his 26%-win rate at the current meeting. She is our second single.)

Race 10: Contention runs deep in the penultimate leg of the Pick Six. I landed on #8 Table for Two as my top pick. He got bet harder than I thought he would in his last start and almost won. That day, he received an uncomfortable, inside trip during a significant part of the race. He’s been knocking on the door for a win and could very well get it here, but there is little margin for error. #1 Explain This Audit broke poorly last time out and only finished a half-length behind Table for Two. With an extra sixteenth of a mile to work with and hopefully a better break, he can turn the tables. Only knock: he’ll probably be lower odds. #7 Big Spin is a price horse to watch out for. After two off-the-board finishes sprinting on dirt at Del Mar, trainer Tim McCanna changes everything up. By Mr. Big out of an Unusual Heat mare (whose lone win was routing on the grass, I might add), he possesses the pedigree to enjoy the added distance and the lawn. #9 Party Foul was green in his career debut sprinting on Tapeta and gets to the route game in his second lifetime race. By Acclamation out of a turf winning router, he has the breeding to enjoy the added ground and new surface. #5 Tuskegee Cat, first start for the Jonathan Wong barn, is a bit inconsistent but can be a legit threat if he shows up with his “A” race. (Strategy: All 5 horses are on the ticket. If you can find a single and are correct in the end, I tip my cap to you.)  

Race 11: The last race of the 2022 Summer Meet is a first level allowance sprint for fillies and mares. #7 Mischievous Curlin earned the silver medal in her last two starts at this level behind two classy rivals. If a fast pace ensues on the lead, she might get the right “stalk and pounce” type of trip to finally break through at this condition. #8 My Legal Bet could be a surprise package. Two starts ago, she finished third behind multiple stakes winner Becca Taylor and next out winner Lagatha. She had an undesirable trip in her most recent start and since then has been given four and a half months off. She returns for trainer Jamey Thomas, who wins at 27% with runners making their first start off a vacation between 2 and 6 months. #2 Angel’s Advocate was a runaway victor of a starter allowance one month ago and could prove tough to reel in if she can duplicate that effort. That said, I am a little concerned that #6 Atlantic Strike will go out and create a speed duel. If so, that could set things up for my top two choices. (Strategy: We use the top three picks in the nightcap and hope for the best!)

THE TICKET:

20-Cent Golden Pick 6 ($72)                            

R6: ALL

R7: 5

R8: 3,6,9

R9: 4

R10: 1,5,7,8,9

R11: 2,7,8 

Good luck! We’ll see you back at Golden Gate on Friday October 21…Opening Day of the Fall Meet!

Matt Dinerman’s Selections

Saturday, October 1, 2022: Day 18 of the 19-day 2022 Summer Meet

***EARLY FIRST POST: 12:45 PM*** ***TICKETS AND PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE***

***Golden Gate Fields track announcer Matt Dinerman provides handicapping analysis every day. To listen to his analysis, please tune in to the Golden Gate Fields simulcast feed. Analysis for each race will take place immediately following the post parade. Matt’s Early Pick 5, Late Pick 4 and Golden Pick 6 tickets will be displayed after the post parade of the first leg of each wager. You can contact Matt at matt.dinerman@goldengatefields.com or on Twitter @3coltshandicap.***

Race 1: #6 Grigoro, #5 Del Mar Flash, #2 Bossy Soul

Race 2: #1 Naughty Nadine, #5 Infinite Love, #2 Big Attraction

Race 3: #2 Alesha, #5 All, #4 Aristeia

Race 4: #3 Stalking Shadow, #5 Respect the Hustle, #2 Sacred Rider

Race 5: #6 Bob’s Vai, # 10 Love Lost, #8 Matchless

Race 6: #3 Vincero Grande, #2 Derrygoolin, #7 Emily Smiles

Race 7: #8 Oh Angel, #4 Just a Little Luck, #9 Mastery Kat

Race 8: #2 Love of the Sport, #5 Polacco, #1 Stay Lit

Race 9: #2 Kings River Knight, #4 U.S. Danger, #6 Table for Ten

Race 10: #3 Kazan, #5 Cleopatra’s Strike, #1 Hapi Hapi

50-Cent Early Pick 5 ($48)                                                                                                      R1:  2,5,6

R2: 1

R3: 2,4,5,7

R4: 3,5

R5: 1,6,8,10

20-Cent Golden Pick 6 ($40)                                     

R5: 1,2,6,8,10

R6: 2,3

R7: 3,4,6,8,9

R8: 1,2,5,7

R9: 2

R10: 3

50-Cent Late Pick 4 ($15)

R7: 3,4,6,8,9

R8: 1,2,5

R9: 2

R10: 3,5

FULL CARD ANALYSIS

By Matt Dinerman

Race 1: We kick off our day with a price play. #6 Grigoro has done her best work on the Golden Gate main track Tapeta and got a confidence booster in her most recent afternoon appearance at Ferndale. She figures to receive a good “stalk and pounce” trip. #5 Del Mar Flash has finished second in her last three races. Her usual effort makes her a legit player against this field. #2 Bossy Soul freshens up and takes a drop in class while coming out of a race in which there were three next out winners. Another logical contender.

Race 2: #1 Naughty Nadine ran a respectable race at this level last time out, finishing third while earning a speed figure clearly good enough to beat this easier group. Will likely be an odds-on favorite come post time. #5 Infinite Love is a filly that seems to find trouble. In her last four races, the comment lines read, “Troubled & wide trip,” “traffic 2nd [turn],” “blocked upper [stretch],” and “traffic 3/8ths [pole].”  If she can figure out a way to work out a clean journey, she might be able to surprise the top pick. The last time we saw #2 Big Attraction, she lost all chance at the break when stumbling badly and losing valuable position. Her best race puts her in the hunt.

Race 3: #2 Alesha could be a surprise package. Her last start at this level in August resulted in a third finish behind a next out winner. In a race where the main contenders have never routed before and the proven routers are also proven pack animals, it may be wise to spread in multi race wagers. #5 All makes her first start for trainer Jack Steiner, who wins at a high 27% rate first off the claim. Steiner opts to route this gal for the first time; her sire (Vancouver) could go two turns and the lone sibling was a router. #4 Aristeia has hit the board in her last two races and can pick up a piece of the pie.

Race 4: An optional claiming race that came up as strong as a first level allowance. #3 Stalking Shadow has shown an affinity for the Tapeta and could be ready to fire off a freshening for leading trainer Jonathan Wong. #5 Respect the Hustle faces easier after a pair of fifth place finishes against tough company at Del Mar. #2 Sacred Rider went gate to wire in a flashy run three weeks ago and could win right back if he can repeat that.

Race 5: #6 Bob’s Vai finished third against tough maiden claiming company last time and finds a much easier field in this spot. Her best run will make her tough to deny. #10 Love Lost is a first-time starter that sports a sharp five-furlong drill on September 17. She is the first foal out of a two-time sprint winner. Leading rider Assael Espinoza is aboard, which only adds to the appeal. #8 Matchless, like our top pick, drops in class, though this filly comes out of maiden special weight races. In a race with no world beaters, she figures.

Race 6: #3 Vincero Grande ran a better than looked race on September 10 after breaking slowly and rallying for second behind Southern California shipper Isola Mia. The one to beat for the red-hot Andy Mathis barn. #2 Derrygoolin has shown an affinity for routing on the grass and enters this spot fresh off a runaway starter allowance victory. She has a legit chance to win again with a similar effort to her last. About a month ago, #7 Emily Smiles finished a solid third while sprinting on Tapeta behind next out allowance winner Always Seeking. By Palace Malace out of a War Chant mare, Emily Smiles has route and turf pedigree…not to mention both siblings were routers who won on turf.

Race 7: #8 Oh Angel sports some sneaky good workouts for a trainer (Blaine Wright) who is capable at firing with first time starters. Her dam’s lone win was sprinting, and the lone sibling won on debut going one turn. #4 Just a Little Luck tries Tapeta for the first time after a pair of in-the-money finishes over the summer. One of the aforementioned top three efforts came at Del Mar. #9 Mastery Kat debuts for an outfit who wins at a strong clip with young horses and first-time starters. A must use on tickets.

Race 8: #2 Love of the Sport drops in class and gets to Tapeta after a handful of average to subpar showings against tougher. The last time he raced at this level on the Tapeta too, he finished as the runner up. #5 Polacco tries routing for the first time and is very likely to be the lone speed. If he can get the two turns, he may prove tough to reel in. #1 Stay Lit plummets in class and appears aggressively spotted for a win.

Race 9: #2 Kings River Knight pulled off two consecutive victories while routing on the turf at Del Mar this summer. A versatile Cal-bred that can be close to the pace or come from off the speed, he figures to work out a good trip to keep his undefeated grass record intact. #4 U. S. Danger is the speed of the speed. In his last start, he failed to hold off race winner Black Caspian but finished ahead of two next out winners. Catch him if you can. #6 Table for Ten ran sneaky good races in three starts at Del Mar and will likely be in contention if he shows up with his best effort.

Race 10: #3 Kazan has the grinding running style to stay the one mile and a half distance in this nightcap. He also possesses the speed figures and recent form. All the stars align for him to run a big one. #7 Cleopatra’s Strike is obviously the class of the race. He has seen better days, but the 9-year-old pro appears well spotted for a competitive showing. #1 Hapi Hapi doesn’t win often but is in with a strong chance to pick up a minor award. Like our top pick, he has a plodding style that indicates he’ll be able to run all day.

Matt Dinerman’s Selections

Friday, September 30, 2022: Day 17 of the 19-day 2022 Summer Meet

***First post: 1:45 PM*** ***TICKETS AND PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE***

***Golden Gate Fields track announcer Matt Dinerman provides handicapping analysis every day. To listen to his analysis, please tune in to the Golden Gate Fields simulcast feed. Analysis for each race will take place immediately following the post parade. Matt’s Early Pick 5, Late Pick 4 and Golden Pick 6 tickets will be displayed after the post parade of the first leg of each wager. You can contact Matt at matt.dinerman@goldengatefields.com or on Twitter @3coltshandicap.***

Race 1: #4 Wart, #2 Sun and Surf, #3 Objectivlyperfect

Race 2: #6 Jaycee, #3 Nene Romano, #4 Bandon Bridge

Race 3: #3 Lil Indian Angel, #7 Truly a Mess, #5 Governor Special

Race 4: #2 Freeport Joe, #5 I’mgonnabesomebody, #1 Harmon

Race 5: #4 Lady in a Hurry, #7 Smiling Thunder, #2 Exquisite Legacy

Race 6: #1 Premiumonsaturday, #6 Consternation, #2 Miss Maia

Race 7: #1 Uncaged Kitty, #5 Coastarando, #2 Civil Suit

Race 8: #7 Bandeena, #3 Here Comes Ralphie, #6 Ida Claire

50-Cent Early Pick 5 ($36)

R1: 2,3,4

R2: 1,3,4,6

R3: 3,5,7

R4: 2

R5: 4,7

20-Cent Golden Pick 6 ($16)

R3: 2,3,5,7

R4: 2,5

R5: 4

R6: 1,6

R7: 1

R8: 1,3,5,6,7

50-Cent Late Pick 4 ($12)

R5: 2,4,7

R6: 1

R7: 1,5

R8: 1,3,6,7

Matt Dinerman’s Selections

Friday, September 30, 2022: Day 17 of the 19-day 2022 Summer Meet

***First post: 1:45 PM*** ***TICKETS AND PICKS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE***

***Golden Gate Fields track announcer Matt Dinerman provides handicapping analysis every day. To listen to his analysis, please tune in to the Golden Gate Fields simulcast feed. Analysis for each race will take place immediately following the post parade. Matt’s Early Pick 5, Late Pick 4 and Golden Pick 6 tickets will be displayed after the post parade of the first leg of each wager. You can contact Matt at matt.dinerman@goldengatefields.com or on Twitter @3coltshandicap.***

Race 1: #4 Wart, #2 Sun and Surf, #3 Objectivlyperfect

Race 2: #6 Jaycee, #3 Nene Romano, #4 Bandon Bridge

Race 3: #3 Lil Indian Angel, #7 Truly a Mess, #5 Governor Special

Race 4: #2 Freeport Joe, #5 I’mgonnabesomebody, #1 Harmon

Race 5: #5 Deise Delight, #4 Lady in a Hurry, #7 Smiling Thunder

Race 6: #1 Premiumonsaturday, #6 Consternation, #2 Miss Maia

Race 7: #1 Uncaged Kitty, #5 Coastarando, #2 Civil Suit

Race 8: #7 Bandeena, #3 Here Comes Ralphie, #6 Ida Claire

50-Cent Early Pick 5 ($36)

R1: 2,3,4

R2: 1,3,4,6

R3: 3,5,7

R4: 2,5

R5: 5

20-Cent Golden Pick 6 ($24)

R3: 2,3,5,7

R4: 2

R5: 5

R6: 1,6

R7: 1,2,5

R8: 1,3,5,6,7

50-Cent Late Pick 4 ($10)

R5: 5

R6: 1,6

R7: 1,5

R8: 1,3,5,6,7