By Matt Dinerman (Track Announcer and Racing Analyst)
Race 7 on Saturday: the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby for 3-year-olds going one mile and an eighth on Tapeta
Approximate Post Time: 3:54 PM Pacific Time
The El Camino Real Derby, for the first time, offers the winner a “free berth” into the second leg of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes. 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points are also awarded to the first place finisher of this event.
With both aforementioned incentives up for grabs, the 2019 ‘Derby has attracted a large field of 13. Good stuff! It should be a terrific race, and we’ve got some pretty talented sophomores signed on that might make some noise in bigger stakes’ later on down the road.
Let’s analyze each entrant in the 2019 El Camino Real Derby…and hopefully pick the winner at the end.
#1 Angelo’s Pride is a starter allowance winner that faces legit stakes horses in this spot. Improvement is needed for him to be competitive.
#2 King of Speed has done his best work on grass; his resume sports a pair of 2-year-old stakes wins on Southern California turf. Usually, turf horses transfer their good form to synthetic surfaces, so there is reason to believe this guy will enjoy running on the Golden Gate Tapeta. He ended his 2018 with two poor efforts against Grade I company. That said, both races were spots in which he was ambitiously placed. Two starts ago, he faced tough company in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. His most recent afternoon appearance, in the Los Alamitos Futurity, was a race in which he ran on his least preferred surface (dirt) and finished well behind Baffert monsters Improbable and Mucho Gusto. King of Speed is freshened up now, drops in class and gets to a surface that he should be effective over. He merits respect.
#3 Data Hawk was well beaten when finishing third behind #4 Anothertwistafate in a January 4 allowance. He was supplemented into this stake for $2,000 by the connections; maybe they think he is ready to run a career best effort. That said, he would need to run a lot faster than he has been to hit the board.
Top local contender #4 Anothertwistafate was well regarded long before his first career start. In two Golden Gate route races, the son of Scat Daddy has blown the doors off his competition while winning with the greatest of ease. His gallop outs have been strong, suggesting that he will be okay with the added distance he will tackle on Saturday, and his effortless victories suggest that it is time for this guy to face legit stakes horses. He has natural early speed; expect him to be up close to the pace. In his most recent start, he dealt with intense pace pressure before shaking off his rivals. I think he could be the real deal; dangerous.
#5 The Creep is one of two entrants conditioned by trainer Doug O’Neill. Last year, this gelding hit the board in the Gold Rush Stakes on the GGF main track, so we know he can be effective on the Tapeta. His most recent afternoon appearance, though, was disappointing: he ran fifth in a field of six. The competition definitely does not get any easier in this spot. Playing against.
The second O’Neill trainee, #6 Weekly Call, went to the lead at big odds (35-1) in his last start before getting nipped for second at the wire by #7 Eagle Song. He might be one of the horses to press #4 Anothertwistafate on the lead. A decent horse, but others look more intriguing.
#7 Eagle Song is the “wise guy” horse. He began his career in Ireland, where he was born, raised and began his racing career. After a pair of 7-furlong wins on synthetic surfaces in Ireland, his current owners purchased him for a good chunk of change ($215,510). His most recent start was terrific, finishing full of run in a mile turf allowance at Santa Anita. That day, he finished ahead of #5 The Creep and #6 Weekly Call. He ran like a horse that should have no problem going a little bit further and he’s projected to get a good, stalking trip. Plenty of things to like about this one.
#8 Rey Coliman finished 5 lengths behind #4 Anothertwistafate in a January 4 allowance race. He needs to make up quite a few lengths to win this race. Passing.
#9 Kingly is a sibling to 4-time Grade 2 winner Mohaymen and 2013 Breeders Cup Juvenile champ New Years Day. Trained by Bob Baffert, the royally bred son of Tapit ships up North and makes his third career start after a pair of non-stakes runs. He broke his maiden impressively in his debut sprinting and most recently ran second behind well-regarded Richard Mandella sophomore Extra Hope in an allowance race. There is no doubt he possesses raw talent, but when you watch his replays you can’t help but notice he’s a bit green and, clearly, is still learning how things work.
#10 Knight’s Cross broke his maiden for a tag down South two starts ago and came up a nose short in his first race against winners, a starter allowance event last month. He’s been improving gradually for a good horseman in trainer Keith Desormeaux, but a career best effort is needed for this dude to take home the gold medal.
#11 Royal Insider has failed to be competitive in four straight maiden races. If he can’t get close to beating maiden company, how is he going to finish ahead of legit stakes horses? Major form reversal is needed.
#12 More Ice is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, who has won the El Camino Real Derby a record six times. This chestnut colt makes his three-year-old debut while freshening up after a third place finish in the Eddie Logan Stakes on turf last December. Like quite a few others in here, this guy enjoys the grass, so there’s hope his solid turf form will transfer to the Golden Gate main track. He has a pair of workouts over the Tapeta leading up to this run, including a sharp 7-furlong stamina-building drill in which he easily disposed of a work partner. Note he finished 10 lengths behind #2 King of Speed three starts ago, but all signs indicate More Ice is a much better horse now. Mark down as a legit contender.
#13 Mayor Cobb is trained by Jonathan Wong, the leading trainer at Golden Gate. Wong won 8 races in two days last week; in other words, if you bet this horse, at least you know he’s coming from a white-hot barn. This gelding doesn’t have the class others do; he most recently defeated #1 Angelo’s Pride in a one-mile starter allowance race. He runs like a horse that wants more distance and gets an added furlong to work with this time, but whether he has the class to beat the best signed on here is a major question mark. I’m siding with others.
My Thoughts:
Giving the nod to #4 Anothertwistafate, whom I think has the ability to beat this field. Expect him to go to the lead and set moderate, but not fast fractions. As mentioned in the article, if he has pace pressure, I’m not too concerned. He has a burst of speed to kick away from his competition down the stretch and hold off the on-coming closers.
#7 Eagle’s Song is a legit threat in my book and we’ll make him the second pick. Look for him to be running on down the lane.
#12 More Ice is the third pick. I’m not worried about the post position. Why? Well, he has almost a quarter mile before he hits the first turn. Ground loss may be imminent anyway, but I like that he’ll be in the clear. Synthetic surface races are run like turf races, so I project the pack will start to bunch up on the far turn and or upper stretch. He’ll be able to make his move away from all the traffic. He has class, good form heading into 2019 and a trainer that knows what type of horse it takes to win this race.
#9 Kingly is probably a pretty decent horse, but I’ll try to beat him on the win end. He was all out to hold second last time out and note he’s still learning things: he runs with his head cocked at times and has some improving to do before he runs like a seasoned racehorse.