$50,000 California Oaks (run at one mile and a sixteenth)
Race 8 at Golden Gate Fields
Saturday, February 11, 2017 (Post time: 4:15 Pacific Standard Time)
Analysis by Matt Dinerman
This Saturday at Golden Gate Fields, 10 three-year-old fillies battle it out in the 2017 edition of The $50,000 California Oaks, the feature event on the 9-race program. Let’s dissect this field, beginning with a filly breaking from the rail.
#1 TAP IT ALL was purchased for a whopping $800,000 as a two-year-old, so expectations have always been high. She broke her maiden by over 13 lengths while routing on the lawn at Turf Paradise two starts ago, and then faced winners in The Blue Norther Stakes at Santa Anita, where she lost by a head at 28-1. It was a big effort. She ran over this Tapeta surface once and even though she finished third behind two runners signed on here (#2 Smiling Ann and #4 Peaked), her last race shows it’s possible the light bulb is finally turning on. One of two runners for trainer Doug O’Neill that should be considered a contender.
#2 SMILING ANN took eight tries to break her maiden but finally got the job done on January 2, when she beat #5 Solana Wind by a little over a length. She wheeled back in just 14 days and beat allowance company in game fashion, finishing in front of #4 Peaked, #6 War Mocassin, #7 Shari and Everybody Does It, who ran third in a starter allowance race last week. Now ‘Ann will be facing a few new shooters from Southern California while making her third start in five and a half weeks.
#3 TAPPED went off at 1-5 in The Pike Place Dancer Stakes over this surface three starts ago. That day, she raced wide on both turns and was eventually outfinished by #9 Simmy’s Temple, losing by three-quarters of a length. Since then, she has run a respectable fourth in The Starlet (G1) at Los Alamitos and won an allowance race sprinting on the dirt at Santa Anita. Expect her to be ready to roll for the Hall of Fame tag team of Jerry Hollendorfer, who won this race last year with Kiss N Scat, and Alex Solis, who’s up from Southern California to ride this daughter of top North American sire Tapit.
#4 PEAKED broke her maiden at 22-1 three starts ago and proved that race was no fluke with solid in-the-money finishes against allowance company in her two most recent races. That said, she’ll need to turn the tables on #1 Smiling Ann, who beat this gal by a head last time out, and will probably need to run the best race of her life to have a chance of winning.
#5 SOLANA WIND finished right behind #2 Smiling Ann on January 2, her second career start, before coming back four weeks later and beating five fillies in a two-turn event while making her first start under the conditioning of trainer Blaine Wright. This certainly isn’t an easy spot to be facing winners for the first time and even though this ‘capper thinks she’s got some talent, I’m looking elsewhere in this race.
#6 WAR MOCCASIN was super impressive beating #2 Smiling Ann two races ago in a maiden special weight, coming home in quick time while galloping out full of energy. She ran in an allowance race won by the aforementioned rival on January 16, though it’s worth noting ‘Moccasin had to take up in the stretch, while making her move in a tight spot. This ‘capper thinks she didn’t get a chance to show her best that day and with a better trip, there’s reason to believe she might have won. Could do some damage at a price.
#7 SHARI broke her maiden all the way back in July, sprinting five furlongs on dirt. Since that victory, she has finished off the board in three of four races against winners. Looks like one of the runners that will need to pick up the pace to be competitive for an in-the-money placing.
#8 SHEEZA SASSY GIRL won her most recent afternoon appearance, though that race was sprinting five and one-half furlongs against starter allowance company. She’s never raced farther than five and one-half panels and now she faces a significantly tougher level of competition at a longer distance. Her pedigree suggests she’ll be okay going a route of ground, but whether she has the class to compete here is a major question mark.
#9 SIMMY’S TEMPLE is the second runner trained by Doug O’Neill. She was the victor of The Pike Place Dancer Stakes in October, defeating likely race favorite #3 Tapped that afternoon. #9 Simmy’s Temple has finished off the board in two starts since that win, but both efforts came in Southern California against a little bit tougher company. Who knows…maybe this gal is a runner that just really likes to race over synthetic surfaces. She should be taken seriously.
THE PACE: #8 Sheeza Sassy Girl just might be the pacesetter. She showed some sprint speed in her last start and is also stretching out to two turns for the first time here; these types are typically forwardly placed in their first route race. #3 Tapped has tactical speed; she has been the front-runner in a couple of races but has also shown the ability to rate if need-be. #1 Tap It All is another with tactical speed, but with her inside post position, we can expect her rider, Kyle Frey, to be aggressive and put her close to the pace, if not on the lead.
THE CLASS: Two Southern California invaders, #3 Tapped and #9 Simmy’s Temple, have the most class in this field. #9 Simmy’s Temple is the only stakes winner in the field and #3 Tapped finished fourth in a two-turn Grade 1 race earlier in the winter.
Top Pick: #9 Simmy’s Temple- Pace scenario should shape up well for her
Second Choice: #3 Tapped- The one to beat again
Third Choice: #2 Smiling Ann- Has hit the board in her past 7 starts
Longshot To Consider: #6 War Moccasin- Ran better than looked against our third choice last month
Win bet: #9 Simmy’s Temple
Exacta Box: #3 Tapped and #6 War Moccasin and #9 Simmy’s Temple
Let’s get lucky!