$50,000 Lost In The Fog Stakes
Race 7 at Golden Gate Fields
Monday, February 20, 2017 (Post time: 3:45 PM Pacific Standard Time)
Analysis by Matt Dinerman
Golden Gate Fields has a special race card this Monday: Presidents Day! Our feature race is the $50,000 Lost In The Fog Stakes, named after the legendary Bay Area based sprinter. Let’s take a look at the seven contenders entered in the 2017 Lost In The Fog and come up with a winner!
#1 QUICK AND SILVER is exactly what his name indicates. The grey gelding by Dunkirk is clearly the fastest horse signed on here and with the inside post position, we can expect jockey Billy Antongeorgi III to send hard out of the gate and try to take this field gate to wire. His best races have been on the lead but he showed a new dimension last time out, when he sat off a blazing fast leader, made a move, took the lead at the quarter pole, and drew off to win nicely. That race was against a salty bunch of allowance/stakes winning runners and it’s worth noting the third place finisher (Fast and Foxy) has since come back to win. Two starts ago ‘Silver finished sixth in The Oakland Stakes behind a few runners entered back in this spot, though he got pace pressure that day and he may be able to have the lead to himself this time around. Dangerous, especially if he gets loose on the lead.
#2 INDIAN BRUT cuts back in distance after a fifth place finish going a route of ground. He finished behind three multiple stakes winners that day (Bronze Star, G.G. Ryder and Stryker PHD) and routing isn’t ‘Brut’s best game, so you can probably toss the race. If anything, that afternoon appearance helped him stay super fit for this. #2 Indian Brut’s last win came sprinting five furlongs over this track in October, and he ran huge to finish second two starts ago in The Oakland Stakes, finishing behind #4 Star Student. Worth a second look.
#3 CHIPS ALL IN freshens up for this run after a sharp victory over #4 Star Student in an allowance race last December. This guy has a great record over synthetic surfaces; 3 wins from 5 starts, with 2 of those victories coming here at Golden Gate. He has shown versatility throughout his career, too, and looks to still have plenty left in the tank at the ripe age of 8. Yet another horse that shouldn’t be ignored.
#4 STAR STUDENT is another that has a great record on synthetic tracks. In fact, all 7 career wins have been on this Golden Gate Tapeta. His effort in The Oakland Stakes three starts ago was terrific, when he beat #1 Quick and Silver, #2 Indian Brut, and #6 Mah Gellin in a game effort. Since then, however, he has regressed and finished second and fourth, respectively, in two separate allowance races. A nice horse, no doubt, but his form isn’t trending upward. Playing against.
#5 MALIBU ALEX broke the maiden impressively in his career debut on January 31, 2016. After a fifth place finish going a route of ground against winners, he was given a 10-month layoff. Obviously something happened after that allowance try, but no need to worry, as the son of Afleet Alex came back and easily won an allowance last month, sprinting this six-furlong distance. The second place runner in that race came back to run second in a starter allowance and the third place finisher is 2 for 24, so you can make a case that the allowance group ‘Alex faced off the layoff wasn’t the strongest bunch. That said, he could be more fit in start #2 off the lengthy vacation and it looks like this guy has talent. May run well at a price.
#6 MAH GELLIN ran three times this fall and finished behind either #1 Quick and Silver, #3 Chips All In, #4 Star Student or #8 Indian Brut in that trio of starts. All 7-career victories have come over this track and he was only ¾ of a length away from winning The Oakland Stakes in November. At the end of the day, though, this ‘capper thinks he might be best used in exotics, if anywhere.
#7 PURE COMEDY has always been well regarded by his connections. After a few unlucky situations in past starts, he finally put it all together and scored big at 14-1, defeating five others runners in a second level allowance race. This is a whole new ballgame, however, as the runners he faces here are much better than what he’s been seeing. Siding with others, though another big effort wouldn’t be a total surprise.
THE PACE: #1 Quick and Silver looks like the quickest horse in the race and may be able to get a loose lead. If anyone decides to take it to ‘Silver from the get go, it might be #7 Pure Comedy, who went head and head for the lead while going at a solid clip two starts ago. This is a stakes sprint with some fast horses…so of course the pace will be rapid. The question really becomes: is anybody going to go out and pressure #1 Quick and Silver? I’m just not sure anyone is quick enough.
THE CLASS: #3 Chips All In and #4 Star Student are the only stakes winners in the field, so they look like the class of the race.
Top Pick: #1 Quick and Silver-From a pace scenario standpoint, he looks to have a big advantage
Second choice: #3 Chips All In-Loves this track
Third choice: #2 Indian Brut– His last two sprints have been awesome and the cutback from a “route to a sprint” angle can be a very profitable one.
Longshot to consider: #5 Malibu Alex- Certainly has talent; could be ready for a peak performance here.