$100,000 California Derby
Race 8 at Golden Gate Fields
Saturday, January 21, 2017 (Post time: 4:15 Pacific Standard Time)
Analysis by Matt Dinerman
The 2017 edition of the $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields features five runners shipping in from Southern California and three locals trying to win for the Bay Area faithful. Let’s take a look at each contender:
#1 SONATEER is still a maiden. His last race came on November 27, when he finished second behind a highly regarded runner (Royal Mo) at Santa Anita. His three-career route tries were all solid, in-the-money efforts. That said, he’ll need to pick up the pace to win it.
#2 ZAKAROFF broke his maiden impressively two starts back when sprinting five and one-half furlongs. In his most recent race (12/31/16) he made his first start going a route of ground and against winners. He sat in midfield, picked up the pace in the final furlong and finished third, a length and a quarter behind #3 More Power To Him. He gets a sixteenth of a mile more to negotiate today and maybe he can take a step forward in his second start going long. There’s upside here.
#3 MORE POWER TO HIM was the victor of that allowance race on December 31. Unlike #2 Zakaroff, this guy already had a couple of route races under his belt. Two starts back he ran a respectable third in The Gold Rush Stakes behind #6 Colonel Samson and broke his maiden three starts ago, at this distance. He’s improved with racing experience, but he’ll need to turn the tables on ‘Samson and beat some new shooters from Southern California.
#4 SO CONFLATED has only two starts. In his debut, he finished third behind American Anthem, who came back to lose a photo finish in The Sham Stakes (G1). Last time out, So Conflated finished second, a head behind a Bob Baffert runner named Dabster, but was declared the winner via disqualification. This will be So Conflated’s first try going a route of ground. His pedigree suggests he’ll love going farther and he runs like a horse who wants more ground. It’s also worth noting Dabster came back to win last week, which is a positive endorsement for So Conflated. He races for Reddam Racing, Doug O’Neill and Mario Gutierrez: the team who won last year’s California Derby with Frank Conversation.
#5 VENDING MACHINE was last seen winning The Eddie Logan Stakes on the lawn at Santa Anita. Usually turf runners transfer their form to the Golden Gate Tapeta nicely and this horse has run well on dirt and turf, so I’d imagine he’ll be OK on Tapeta too. The son of Hard Spun is a half sibling to the Grade I winner and million dollar earner Comma To the Top, so he’s bred to be nice, and his last few races have been terrific. In fact, three starts ago he won an allowance race and the second and third place finishers came right back to win. The morning line favorite for good reason.
#6 COLONEL SAMSON won the Gold Rush Stakes in early December, finishing in front of #3 More Power To Him. On January 7, he ran against Gormley and American Anthem in The Sham Stakes (G3) and was beaten by over 22 lengths. You can cross that last race out; it was against much tougher over a sloppy track, which he didn’t take kindly to. The quick turnaround is a minor concern and this is a little tougher field than what he saw in The Gold Rush last month, but he merits respect.
#7 SECRET HOUSE is the second runner shipping in from Southern California for trainer Doug O’Neill. This $125,000 sales purchase finished second in his most recent start, an allowance race for two-year-olds in October. He hasn’t been seen in almost three months and O’Neill is only 3 for 58 with runners making their first start off a 61-180 day layoff. This colt’s lone win came in his debut six starts ago, which was a four and a half furlong sprint all the way back in May. Hard to gauge.
#8 ABERDEEN ISLAND makes his first start against winners while also running in his first route race. He started off his career with a fourth place finish behind #2 Zakaroff and came back to win by a length and a quarter as the favorite in his second and most recent start to date. Now he’ll have to deal with winners who have route experience. This is a significant step up in class; not going to be an easy task.
THE PACE: There’s no confirmed front-runner so there will be some jockeying for position early on. #8 Aberdeen Island stretches out to two turns for the first time and sometimes these types are a little more forwardly placed than if they were in a sprint. #3 More Power To Him draws inside of other speed contenders, so he may be closer to the pace, similar to when he went to the lead in the Gold Rush Stakes. #7 Secret House should be within the top three early, considering he has shown speed in past starts and runners who are “fresh” sometimes show a little more early foot than they normally would. I’d expect the pace to be contentious, but not necessarily fast.
THE CLASS: #5 Vending Machine and #6 Colonel Samson are the two classiest horses. Each has a stakes win, something the others do not have.
Top Pick: #5 Vending Machine- Class of the field and the one to beat
Second choice: #4 So Conflated-I’m looking forward to seeing him run longer
Third choice: #6 Colonel Samsen- Looked good winning over this track in The Gold Rush
Longshot To Consider: #3 Zakaroff-Improving with racing experience; has talent
Win bet: #3 Zakaroff
Exacta Box: #3 Zakaroff and #4 So Conflated and #5 Vending Machine